Sat, Jan 5, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 110 | 110 | 11 | 332 |
| PHI | 113 | 012 | 19 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10PHITravis SanheimPPAssists: Jordan Weal, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 8:51CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 5:57PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 15:43CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:59CGYTJ BrodieGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:59CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:20CGYDerek Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:50CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:51PHIIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
- P2 7:51CGYJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:40CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00PHIRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:48PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Czarnik – Ryan4:47
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Neal – Gaudreau – Monahan2:21
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk9:49
xG 0.45–0.52 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Neal – Frolik – Jankowski8:11
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin16:47
xG 0.95–0.57 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:51
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 21–18goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington8:32
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick8:56
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Weise – Laughton – Raffl11:08
xG 0.61–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny11:22
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Weal9:14
xG 0.21–0.64 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov18:34
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Gudas – Gostisbehere13:25
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Hagg – Folin10:35
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).