Sat, Jan 5, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 08 | 09 | 028 |
| TOR | 212 | 012 | 310 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:30TORTrevor MooreAssists: Igor Ozhiganov · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 4:45TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Andreas Johnsson · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 11:55TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 14:49TORIgor OzhiganovAssists: Auston Matthews, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:35TORAndreas Johnsson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:02TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:50TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Granlund – Baertschi – Virtanen8:03
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte8:10
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser4:25
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Sutter – Roussel6:05
xG 0.10–0.56 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Pouliot – Stecher12:58
xG 0.34–0.71 (33%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev18:37
xG 0.42–0.98 (30%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton14:58
xG 0.16–1.36 (11%)attempts 7–25goals 0–4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Kapanen11:54
xG 1.36–0.36 (79%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Brown – Marner12:01
xG 1.00–0.24 (80%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews12:31
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 20–8goals 3–0
- Gauthier – Moore – Lindholm7:21
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly16:19
xG 1.62–0.45 (78%)attempts 26–17goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev15:47
xG 1.02–0.40 (72%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov12:49
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).