Sat, Jan 5, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 12 | 36 | 414 |
| STL | 210 | 08 | 114 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:37STLZachary SanfordAssists: Vince Dunn, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 2:25NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 8:27NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anders Lee, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 8:38NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: Casey Cizikas, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 15:04NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Scott Mayfield · Backhand, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 18:27STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: David Perron, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:08NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:16STLRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:01STLRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:12NYIRyan Pulock: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:44NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:14NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:40NYIRyan Pulock: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:22
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson4:54
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Komarov – Dal Colle – Ho-Sang5:12
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:44
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:56
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Toews12:44
xG 0.43–0.47 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy12:26
xG 0.14–0.59 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBozak – Tarasenko – Sanford5:39
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 1–2
- Schenn – Schwartz – Thomas10:29
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Steen – Sundqvist – Barbashev2:16
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Fabbri – Barbashev6:01
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Dunn4:21
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn7:30
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Parayko3:07
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).