Sat, Jan 5, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 0, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 03 | 07 | 06 | 016 |
| LAK | 39 | 09 | 15 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15LAKKyle CliffordGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:35LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 13:57LAKJeff CarterAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 10:15LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P2 9:09EDMAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:05LAKSean Walker: Interference2 min
- P2 18:52EDMAlexander Petrovic: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:38LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:51LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P3 16:17LAKBrendan Leipsic: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:17EDMMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:17EDMMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:17EDMMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:43LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:43EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Spooner – Rattie4:46
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid5:07
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Nugent-Hopkins6:25
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian2:41
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Jones12:29
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse15:23
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Manning – Jones2:16
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Toffoli – Kempe10:32
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Carter – Leipsic – Iafallo11:09
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner7:05
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Brown – Kopitar10:59
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Fantenberg11:52
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Walker14:18
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort14:40
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).