Sat, Jan 5, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 19 | 03 | 220 |
| SJS | 24 | 112 | 217 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:01SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 16:13TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 4:23SJSEvander KanePPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 4:53TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 5:18SJSEvander KaneAssists: Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 12:20SJSLukas RadilAssists: Timo Meier, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:39TBLAnton Stralman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:43TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:54SJSEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 1:32TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:46SJSEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Palat13:14
xG 0.78–0.61 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Gourde – Erne – Cirelli9:24
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point13:00
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Callahan – Paquette – Joseph6:59
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman14:16
xG 1.02–0.76 (57%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:19
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Radil10:36
xG 0.79–0.05 (94%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen9:58
xG 1.06–0.42 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc7:14
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl13:33
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon16:22
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Burns – Ryan17:46
xG 1.31–0.98 (57%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Burns – Dillon3:21
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).