Sun, Jan 6, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New Jersey Devils 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 07 | 020 | 238 |
| VGK | 111 | 211 | 06 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–0
- P1 9:37NJDBen LovejoyAssists: Pavel Zacha, Drew Stafford · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 12:30VGKRyan ReavesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:17VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Cody Eakin, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 15:46VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:37NJDMiles Wood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:05NJDBrett Seney: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:38VGKRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:58VGKRyan Reaves: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Wood12:35
xG 0.70–0.28 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hischier13:19
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Pietila – Noesen – Zacha11:17
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
- Boyle – Stafford – Seney9:23
xG 0.05–0.42 (10%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher12:05
xG 0.70–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Butcher – Santini2:30
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Santini13:47
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Lindberg – Bellemare9:56
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek10:02
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:35
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch14:11
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Merrill17:01
xG 0.74–0.37 (66%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore14:45
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt16:56
xG 0.28–0.84 (25%)attempts 16–27goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).