Sun, Jan 6, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 06 | 215 | 334 |
| DET | 19 | 110 | 06 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:08DETAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:48DETFilip HronekAssists: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 6:19WSHTravis BoydAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Brett Connolly · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 16:08WSHMichal KempnyGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:37DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:11WSHJonas Siegenthaler: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:55DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:01DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:13WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:30DETAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:56WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:25
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:23
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana9:11
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Connolly – Boyd – Burakovsky2:22
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny14:40
xG 1.27–0.43 (75%)attempts 24–11goals 1–1
- Orpik – Siegenthaler11:34
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:43
xG 0.81–1.22 (40%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou10:34
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin11:57
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Ehn5:18
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Mantha8:34
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Cholowski15:36
xG 1.11–0.77 (59%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Witkowski10:31
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Hronek2:19
xG 0.02–0.16 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).