Mon, Jan 7, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 212 | 211 | 432 |
| TOR | 07 | 07 | 04 | 018 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:08NSHMattias EkholmPPGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:11NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Matt Irwin, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 17:23NSHColton SissonsAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Ellis · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–0
- P3 19:22NSHKevin FialaAssists: Colton Sissons, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:42NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:11TORNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:12NSHMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
- P3 4:33TORPar Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:58NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson6:39
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Forsberg – Gaudreau5:07
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Watson4:13
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Grimaldi – Hartman – Gaudreau3:06
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm9:39
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin6:23
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:26
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Brown – Kapanen8:07
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews10:42
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Gauthier – Moore – Lindholm5:48
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev13:23
xG 0.86–0.25 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov10:05
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
- Dermott – Zaitsev2:11
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).