Mon, Jan 7, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 1, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 05 | 111 | 125 |
| MTL | 011 | 011 | 010 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:58MINMikael GranlundGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:28MINNick Seeler: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:28MINNick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28MINNick Seeler: Misconduct10 min
- P1 2:28MTLKenny Agostino: Interference5 min
- P1 2:28MTLKenny Agostino: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28MTLKenny Agostino: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 7:00MINJason Zucker: Holding2 min
- P1 11:28MINJonas Brodin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:23MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P2 1:26MTLCarey Price: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 3:24MTLMike Reilly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:39MTLMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:39MINGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Niederreiter10:08
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Granlund – Greenway9:41
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Parise – Coyle – Kunin10:53
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Brodin12:53
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin2:10
xG 0.10–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:24
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault7:58
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi7:33
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Domi9:56
xG 0.14–0.47 (24%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulak7:48
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Mete5:13
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak3:20
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).