Mon, Jan 7, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 116 | 19 | 218 | 443 |
| CHI | 112 | 112 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 16:34CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Erik Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:07CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:42CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 0:54CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:10CGYGarnet HathawayENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
- P3 19:31CHIBrandon SaadPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:08CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:39CHIDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:35CHIDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:49CHIErik Gustafsson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 1:35CHIDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:38CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:05
xG 1.79–0.36 (83%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett2:25
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Czarnik – Ryan4:45
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk6:34
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie3:46
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:17
xG 0.88–0.48 (65%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Brodie – Andersson2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Kampf2:47
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Perlini – DeBrincat – Kampf6:51
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Caggiula4:48
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Kruger – Caggiula2:09
xG 0.15–0.32 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Davidson9:45
xG 0.52–0.58 (48%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Keith – Gustafsson19:34
xG 0.90–1.15 (44%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Murphy – Dahlstrom14:39
xG 0.77–1.05 (42%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).