Tue, Jan 8, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 114 | 07 | 137 |
| PIT | 210 | 211 | 110 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29PITTanner PearsonAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 3:03PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 3:04PITBryan RustSHAssists: Matt Cullen, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 8:56PITRiley SheahanSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 19:16FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Evgenii Dadonov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 13:41PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:10FLADenis Malgin: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:57FLAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:26PITDominik Simon: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:18FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:09PITJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:02PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:02FLABogdan Kiselevich: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:02FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:02PITMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:28PITZachary Aston-Reese: Interference2 min
- P3 5:49PITZachary Aston-Reese: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:49FLAColton Sceviour: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:24FLAJayce Hawryluk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:13PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Barkov – Malgin3:25
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov4:10
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Malgin – Borgstrom2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Barkov – McCann2:39
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich11:07
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Kiselevich3:01
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Kiselevich4:52
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Simon2:08
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel9:44
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – Simon – Aston-Reese4:07
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Pearson8:55
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Pettersson9:20
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin12:28
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Johnson – Maatta2:41
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).