Tue, Jan 8, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 012 | 217 | 340 |
| WSH | 14 | 313 | 18 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jakub Vrana, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:28PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:19WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Lars Eller, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 11:22WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 15:55WSHJakub VranaPPGWGAssists: Travis Boyd, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 16:33PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 19:53PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:57WSHT.J. OshieENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:46WSHAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:24PHIRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:12PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:06WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:04WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:04WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:04PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:06WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:31PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:56PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:56PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:28WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Laughton – Raffl7:02
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick4:22
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Weise – Varone6:54
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny2:32
xG 0.17–0.21 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Gostisbehere10:30
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Provorov13:22
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Hagg – Folin10:59
xG 0.38–0.86 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Vrana9:21
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Dowd – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson6:52
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:26
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Connolly – Boyd – Burakovsky7:24
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny11:20
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Orlov11:57
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Orlov – Siegenthaler4:27
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).