Tue, Jan 8, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 210 | 17 | 325 |
| DET | 09 | 112 | 111 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:30MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 1:36MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Max Domi, Jordie Benn · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 6:39DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Luke Glendening · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:19MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 4:58DETAndreas AthanasiouPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:43DETJacob de la Rose: Holding2 min
- P1 13:30MTLPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:59DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:03MTLShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 18:01MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:10MTLMax Domi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:04MTLTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault10:12
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Armia – Drouin – Domi10:56
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Agostino – Peca – Hudon6:20
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:24
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly11:53
xG 0.91–0.45 (67%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Benn – Kulak11:14
xG 0.72–0.32 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Weber – Mete13:39
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin4:38
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Bertuzzi3:02
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Ehn6:22
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Mantha4:15
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Witkowski10:14
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – Cholowski14:37
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Jensen3:28
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).