Tue, Jan 8, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 29 | 02 | 317 |
| STL | 04 | 111 | 012 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:27DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 1:43DALJohn KlingbergPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 6:12DALTyler SeguinAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roman Polak · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 6:35STLDavid PerronAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Carl Gunnarsson · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:34DALConnor Carrick: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:31DALConnor Carrick: Holding2 min
- P2 0:08STLRobert Bortuzzo: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:33STLZachary Sanford: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Janmark – Hintz6:58
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:49
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 6–18goals 2–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Nichushkin11:03
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Spezza – Condra – Shore10:18
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Lindell4:07
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen3:57
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:34
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:01
xG 0.73–0.29 (71%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Fabbri – Barbashev2:20
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Blais4:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford13:25
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson11:10
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko17:05
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo14:01
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).