Tue, Jan 8, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 4, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 215 | 112 | 441 |
| WPG | 27 | 27 | 37 | 721 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Brandon Tanev, Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 13:57WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–2
- P1 16:04COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 3:22WPGBlake WheelerSHAssists: Mark Scheifele, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 6:32WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Tyler Myers, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 16:10COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Matt Calvert, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 17:43COLRyan GravesAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Carl Soderberg · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 3:59WPGAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Mason Appleton · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 11:12WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–6
- P3 16:24COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–6
- P3 18:54WPGJacob TroubaENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.69 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:13WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:20COLTyson Jost: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:13WPGPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:30WPGPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:44COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20COLCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:18WPGTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 19:32WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:22COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:11
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost8:14
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Dries – O'Connor6:10
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:31
xG 0.55–1.06 (34%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Graves5:53
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Johnson – Nemeth2:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Barrie – Graves2:04
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev9:25
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor11:01
xG 0.90–0.94 (49%)attempts 9–23goals 1–1
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton5:40
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Little – Roslovic – Laine10:18
xG 0.21–0.57 (27%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Chiarot13:43
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Morrow12:04
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
- Trouba – Morrissey15:01
xG 0.50–1.25 (29%)attempts 11–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).