Tue, Jan 8, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Rangers 2, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 010 | 214 | 229 |
| VGK | 113 | 211 | 17 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:02VGKCody EakinAssists: Alex Tuch, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:06VGKBrandon PirriPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–2
- P2 18:53VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 11:43NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:40VGKRyan CarpenterENAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.71 xG1–4
- P3 19:37NYRJesper FastAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Boo Nieves · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:03NYRTony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57NYRTony DeAngelo: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57NYRTony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:37NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:20NYRAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:20VGKRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:36VGKShea Theodore: Holding2 min
- P3 9:35VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Vesey – Howden9:48
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- McLeod – Nieves – Buchnevich6:39
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad9:26
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Strome – Chytil9:22
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – DeAngelo5:45
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Pionk3:25
xG 0.23–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Skjei6:51
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Karlsson – Marchessault14:56
xG 0.82–0.51 (62%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Reaves – Lindberg – Bellemare5:54
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek10:28
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch8:55
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore16:00
xG 0.79–0.43 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill14:51
xG 0.62–0.87 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- McNabb – Schmidt15:43
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).