Wed, Jan 9, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 217 | 111 | 08 | 11 | 437 |
| CHI | 113 | 111 | 17 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49NSHColton SissonsAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 17:51CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 17:59NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 16:26NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 19:40CHIJonathan ToewsSHAssists: Marcus Kruger, Carl Dahlstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 17:39CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 1:00NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:03NSHDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:13CHIBrendan Perlini: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:32CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:24CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:42NSHMatt Irwin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:24
xG 0.84–0.39 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Watson9:10
xG 0.58–0.29 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Sissons – Fiala9:35
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons3:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:10
xG 1.48–0.57 (72%)attempts 27–19goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Ekholm8:21
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm10:47
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Saad – Caggiula – Kampf9:31
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Kruger – Hayden – Perlini5:19
xG 0.07–0.24 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Strome14:28
xG 0.58–1.11 (34%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun12:15
xG 0.37–1.04 (26%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Jokiharju3:24
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Davidson – Jokiharju9:40
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom12:59
xG 0.20–0.67 (23%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).