Wed, Jan 9, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 010 | 114 | 335 |
| CGY | 25 | 16 | 25 | 516 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34CGYMikael BacklundAssists: James Neal, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 10:29CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Sam Bennett, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 16:32COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 19:41COLErik JohnsonAssists: Matt Calvert, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:57CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 9:14CGYMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 19:22COLMikko RantanenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:50CGYMatthew TkachukENAssists: TJ Brodie, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:11CGYSean Monahan: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:07CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:43COLSheldon Dries: Holding2 min
- P2 7:38CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:47COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:00CGYJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:27
xG 1.52–0.30 (83%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost6:05
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Dries – O'Connor3:06
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto7:51
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie12:35
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard9:53
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Graves3:34
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Czarnik – Ryan5:39
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett7:43
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:52
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:32
xG 0.11–0.60 (15%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Andersson8:00
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie18:05
xG 0.78–0.81 (49%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin16:22
xG 0.27–1.07 (20%)attempts 9–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).