Thu, Jan 10, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 17 | 210 | 422 |
| BOS | 017 | 111 | 113 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38WSHJakub VranaAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 14:11BOSRyan DonatoAssists: Torey Krug, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:37BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Danton Heinen, David Backes · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 5:46WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:25WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:51WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Holding2 min
- P1 14:13WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:10BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:43WSHLars Eller: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:57BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52WSHBrett Connolly: Holding2 min
- P3 3:58WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson4:25
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana9:46
xG 0.36–0.31 (53%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson14:18
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Boyd8:41
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Siegenthaler6:53
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Orlov – Siegenthaler3:13
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Kempny2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Kuraly – Acciari10:06
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:53
xG 0.41–0.30 (57%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Donato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson8:24
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – DeBrusk5:37
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Krug9:35
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Miller – Grzelcyk12:24
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Chara – Carlo15:06
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).