Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 315 | 013 | 115 | 443 |
| NJD | 08 | 218 | 03 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30TORConnor BrownAssists: Ron Hainsey, Zach Hyman · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:21TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 19:53TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 16:07NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Andy Greene, Miles Wood · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 16:33NJDBrian BoyleAssists: Blake Pietila · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:38TORMitch MarnerENAssists: John Tavares, Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:54NJDBrett Seney: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:05NJDBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:05TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:16TORPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:36TORIgor Ozhiganov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46TORTravis Dermott: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner11:55
xG 1.00–0.53 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews11:48
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Marleau – Kadri – Nylander9:36
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Gauthier – Lindholm6:56
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev14:40
xG 1.08–0.40 (73%)attempts 23–8goals 1–1
- Dermott – Ozhiganov9:35
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly16:51
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood11:16
xG 1.00–1.07 (48%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
- Boyle – Pietila – Rooney6:55
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Stafford – Zacha – Seney10:02
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hischier12:19
xG 0.16–0.86 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vatanen – Butcher2:23
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson16:44
xG 0.82–0.99 (45%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher13:09
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).