Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 210 | 19 | 11 | 420 |
| NYR | 18 | 15 | 117 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38NYRRyan StromePPAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Filip Chytil · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 2:31NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 8:51NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 1:11NYRKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Fredrik Claesson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 3:08NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 8:40NYRJesper FastAssists: Neal Pionk, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 18:34NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:17NYIRoss Johnston: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 7:41NYRCody McLeod: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 7:41NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:09NYRJimmy Vesey: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:38NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:07NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:13NYILeo Komarov: Delaying game2 min
- P3 9:39NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39NYRCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Nieves
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier12:54
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Filppula – Komarov – Johnston6:53
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:44
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson9:31
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews14:10
xG 0.64–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock14:00
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy13:27
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad12:30
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 20–8goals 1–1
- McLeod – Nieves – Buchnevich5:52
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Howden7:09
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Fast – Strome – Chytil11:42
xG 0.13–0.65 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Claesson17:42
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Skjei13:11
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Staal – Pionk13:00
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).