Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 06 | 317 | 00 | 335 |
| CBJ | 112 | 08 | 212 | 11 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26CBJBoone JennerAssists: Josh Anderson, Zach Werenski · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 4:31NSHNick BoninoAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 13:32CBJArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:43CBJBoone JennerAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 15:07NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 15:45NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Colton Sissons, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:22CBJArtemi PanarinPPGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P3 2:23CBJJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
- P3 6:38CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:12NSHAustin Watson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- OT 1:08NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson13:38
xG 1.24–0.62 (67%)attempts 23–9goals 1–2
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Fiala3:03
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Watson9:21
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Hartman – Gaudreau8:26
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis19:36
xG 1.09–0.42 (72%)attempts 30–12goals 1–0
- Subban – Irwin3:14
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm7:52
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois13:48
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Nash – Sedlak – Bjorkstrand5:36
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Wennberg – Robinson11:13
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson14:47
xG 0.78–1.03 (43%)attempts 16–21goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski17:56
xG 1.39–1.01 (58%)attempts 19–21goals 1–1
- Savard – Harrington16:16
xG 0.88–0.53 (63%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Murray – Nutivaara16:15
xG 0.12–0.72 (14%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).