Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 18 | 011 | 129 |
| STL | 29 | 110 | 111 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–1
- P1 16:24STLOskar SundqvistSHGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 6:04STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Robby Fabbri, David Perron · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 9:02MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 9:19STLSammy BlaisAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:14MTLShea Weber: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10MTLPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P1 13:41STLJoel Edmundson: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:14STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:34STLRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25MTLJordie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:32MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:02STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:07STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:55STLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:37MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:41STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:41MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi7:15
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino7:12
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault8:50
xG 0.43–0.69 (39%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Domi7:50
xG 0.08–0.51 (14%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner11:16
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Benn – Kulak8:56
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete12:33
xG 0.33–1.04 (24%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Fabbri4:06
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford5:19
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Blais2:35
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:24
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko14:02
xG 1.23–0.39 (76%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson10:52
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo9:47
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).