Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 19 | 113 | 228 |
| MIN | 110 | 212 | 00 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Eric Staal, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:04MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 17:50MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 19:19WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 17:22WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Bryan Little, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:01MINMikael Granlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:42WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:46MINEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:08WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:40MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:19MINMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Roslovic – Laine7:35
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:31
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Perreault – Copp – Tanev2:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton5:17
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Chiarot4:17
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey15:57
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Myers – Chiarot9:45
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Foligno – Eriksson Ek7:15
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Kunin8:51
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Greenway9:46
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund13:26
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:59
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Prosser – Seeler10:05
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Brodin16:33
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).