Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 17 | 19 | 02 | 0 | 330 |
| EDM | 15 | 17 | 16 | 06 | 2 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Bogdan Kiselevich · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:32EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Alex Chiasson, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:28FLADenis MalginUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 19:38EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 14:02FLAHenrik BorgstromAssists: Bogdan Kiselevich, Mike Hoffman · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 19:52EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:40EDMJujhar Khaira: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:37EDMKris Russell: Holding2 min
- P2 16:33FLAKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:36FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Barkov – Malgin14:15
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Haley – Lammikko5:29
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Vatrano – Borgstrom6:44
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Lammikko – Vatrano2:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich12:08
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Matheson – Ekblad18:49
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Yandle – Pysyk16:20
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi6:51
xG 0.35–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid5:17
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kassian – Khaira2:46
xG 0.02–0.02 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Spooner – Gambardella2:21
xG 0.03–0.05 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse20:35
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- Gravel – Benning11:06
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones13:53
xG 0.47–0.75 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).