Thu, Jan 10, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 15 | 212 | 327 |
| VGK | 113 | 012 | 113 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34VGKTomas NosekAssists: Ryan Reaves, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 14:05SJSTomas HertlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 2:16VGKJon MerrillAssists: Brandon Pirri, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 7:24SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Brent Burns, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 8:03SJSJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:40SJSLukas Radil: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:11VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:28SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:54VGKMarc-Andre Fleury: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:16SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Sorensen5:07
xG 0.29–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Radil5:51
xG 0.23–0.11 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc5:33
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl5:23
xG 0.88–0.96 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Karlsson3:47
xG 0.64–0.13 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Simek9:23
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Heed – Ryan5:51
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Zykov – Carpenter4:46
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch6:38
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek4:36
xG 0.33–0.33 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Karlsson – Marchessault7:37
xG 0.12–0.88 (12%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Merrill9:07
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore9:30
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt8:40
xG 0.72–1.22 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).