Thu, Jan 10, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 29 | 28 | 427 |
| LAK | 018 | 16 | 010 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:47LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Jake Muzzin, Austin Wagner · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 14:59OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 16:40OTTChris TierneyGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Rudolfs Balcers · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:22OTTChristian WolaninUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 19:02OTTChris TierneyENAssists: Zack Smith, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:25LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P1 12:31OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:42OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 14:49LAKNate Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Tierney – Balcers2:57
xG 0.21–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau3:20
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Dzingel – Pageau2:15
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Paul3:05
xG 0.01–0.23 (6%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Wolanin16:03
xG 0.99–0.42 (70%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros13:59
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Ceci – Lajoie17:34
xG 0.07–0.86 (7%)attempts 6–23goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Brown – Kopitar14:00
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Toffoli – Kempe12:11
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner6:14
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carter – Leipsic – Iafallo10:46
xG 0.32–0.53 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Fantenberg3:41
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort13:44
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Doughty2:46
xG 0.02–0.01 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).