Fri, Jan 11, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 18 | 113 | 333 |
| CAR | 19 | 311 | 010 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25CARMicheal FerlandAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 19:39BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart · Deflected, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 4:30CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 5:00BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 5:42CARSebastian AhoAssists: Micheal Ferland · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 12:27CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Micheal Ferland, Teuvo Teravainen · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 16:48BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Marco Scandella · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:09BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:31CARSaku Maenalanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:51CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:41BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:41CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:41CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:25BUFKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P3 7:34CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Sheary – Rodrigues3:52
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel5:19
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Rodrigues6:59
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Sheary – Reinhart7:30
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – McCabe9:43
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Pilut14:30
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:53
xG 0.05–0.18 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Teravainen – Aho12:34
xG 0.99–0.12 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Williams – McKegg – McGinn11:46
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Rask – Maenalanen – Foegele6:58
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov8:07
xG 0.28–0.67 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce16:17
xG 1.33–0.38 (78%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk11:19
xG 0.66–0.68 (49%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- de Haan – Faulk16:18
xG 0.57–0.95 (37%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).