Fri, Jan 11, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Detroit Red Wings 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 115 | 111 | 235 |
| WPG | 210 | 19 | 18 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Adam Lowry, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 19:58WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:51WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 10:03DETLuke GlendeningSHAssists: Filip Hronek, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 6:50DETDennis CholowskiPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:00WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:50DETJacob de la Rose: Holding2 min
- P2 4:10WPGJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P2 8:12DETNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:38WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:14WPGBen Chiarot: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 11:38WPGJacob Trouba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:19DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestVanek – de la Rose – Mantha3:20
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Ehn3:55
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:39
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Ehn3:57
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green13:11
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Jensen – Cholowski11:24
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Jensen3:05
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev8:15
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:35
xG 0.72–0.53 (57%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Little – Roslovic – Laine8:49
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton6:51
xG 0.00–0.68 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Chiarot13:28
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:28
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Morrow – Niku11:51
xG 0.14–0.90 (14%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).