Fri, Jan 11, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 314 | 414 | 736 |
| ANA | 39 | 19 | 07 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27ANANick RitchieAssists: Ondrej Kase, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:41ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 12:23ANADaniel SprongAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 0:59PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 4:54PITJake GuentzelAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 11:24PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–3
- P2 14:39ANAJakob SilfverbergSHAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 9:33PITTanner PearsonAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Dominik Simon · Slap, 0.15 xG4–4
- P3 10:21PITPhil KesselGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.36 xG5–4
- P3 16:35PITTanner PearsonAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.33 xG6–4
- P3 19:02PITJake GuentzelENAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.52 xG7–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:55ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:26PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:34ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:55PITJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel15:25
xG 1.29–0.57 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Cullen – Grant – Wilson8:09
xG 0.71–0.08 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Pearson – Simon9:41
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Brassard – Kessel – Sheahan9:14
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:37
xG 1.89–0.64 (75%)attempts 21–13goals 2–2
- Johnson – Pettersson14:37
xG 1.01–0.36 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Maatta12:27
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Sprong11:51
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase10:41
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:12
xG 0.37–1.25 (23%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
- Gibbons – Rowney – Sherwood8:40
xG 0.04–0.93 (5%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Manson15:00
xG 0.48–0.87 (36%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
- Dotchin – Larsson11:21
xG 0.45–0.86 (35%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Montour17:22
xG 0.60–1.91 (24%)attempts 14–27goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).