Sat, Jan 12, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 19 | 113 | 234 |
| NJD | 112 | 110 | 14 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Drew Stafford, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:08NJDNico HischierUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 15:51PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 1:18NJDMiles WoodGWGAssists: Nico Hischier, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.38 xG1–3
- P3 19:58PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:52PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:25PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:46PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:53NJDNico Hischier: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:58NJDPavel Zacha: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:39PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39NJDBrett Seney: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:44PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:27PHIMichael Raffl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:47PHIJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:47NJDMirco Mueller: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:56NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny7:59
xG 0.80–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom8:05
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Weise – Varone – Raffl5:26
xG 0.05–0.00 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick6:52
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Hagg5:42
xG 0.74–0.10 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gudas – Provorov4:17
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov12:01
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Wood9:47
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Boyle – Pietila – Seney4:22
xG 0.00–0.03 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Zacha – Bratt7:15
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Palmieri – Hischier9:02
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vatanen – Butcher10:50
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Mueller11:12
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson11:57
xG 0.87–1.23 (41%)attempts 12–25goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).