Sat, Jan 12, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 17 | 111 | 226 |
| NYI | 010 | 18 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:40NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 14:09NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Boo Nieves · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 14:55NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:17NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:58NYRMats Zuccarello: Holding2 min
- P1 11:48NYRAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P1 13:39NYRFredrik Claesson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:40NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P2 10:23NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:35NYILuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:21NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:06NYRRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:43NYIValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad9:58
xG 0.98–0.59 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Fast – Strome – Chytil8:42
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Nieves – Buchnevich3:07
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Howden7:15
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo9:50
xG 0.74–0.36 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson7:21
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Skjei10:58
xG 0.50–0.53 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Komarov – Johnston3:56
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:25
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson8:39
xG 0.62–0.78 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:57
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Toews13:03
xG 1.22–0.34 (78%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Mayfield9:53
xG 0.55–0.51 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:56
xG 0.39–0.89 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).