Sat, Jan 12, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 015 | 06 | 028 |
| MTL | 08 | 010 | 313 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 8:21MTLBrett KulakSHGWGAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 10:39MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 18:44MTLJordie BennENAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:42MTLKenny Agostino: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:10COLJ.T. Compher: Interference2 min
- P1 11:22COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:08MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:08MTLMike Reilly: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:08COLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:35COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:48MTLShea Weber: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:34MTLBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Compher3:38
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost3:48
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto6:53
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Jost – Dries4:04
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Barberio – Graves5:37
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie11:32
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard2:18
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Domi7:19
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Armia – Domi2:21
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino6:14
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin10:03
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulak9:31
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete13:37
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly12:36
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).