Sat, Jan 12, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 010 | 112 | 128 |
| SJS | 06 | 112 | 314 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:57SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 6:17SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Justin Braun, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 6:44OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Bobby Ryan, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 15:43SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Timo Meier, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 18:39SJSMelker KarlssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:36SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:13SJSTim Heed: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:44SJSJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:26OTTChristian Jaros: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Pageau – Tkachuk3:02
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau2:49
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Balcers8:16
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – Dzingel2:17
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lajoie13:10
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie2:26
xG 0.08–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:03
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Radil9:23
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Kane – Hertl4:33
xG 0.56–0.19 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl3:38
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc6:32
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon9:21
xG 0.93–0.31 (75%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Braun – Heed7:22
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Karlsson4:50
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).