Sat, Jan 12, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 010 | 121 | 240 |
| LAK | 17 | 213 | 25 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30PITJake GuentzelSHAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:58LAKJeff CarterUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:47LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Jeff Carter, Jake Muzzin · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 16:05LAKAnze KopitarSHGWGAssists: Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 0:49LAKBrendan LeipsicAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 9:20PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 19:13LAKAnze KopitarENAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:26PITDerek Grant: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:13PITMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:13LAKMatt Luff: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:41LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P3 0:49PITTanner Pearson: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 4:33LAKBrendan Leipsic: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:58LAKAnze Kopitar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:45LAKBrendan Leipsic: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Pearson – Simon10:44
xG 0.55–0.02 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:55
xG 1.14–0.63 (65%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Sheahan7:26
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Cullen – Grant – Wilson4:12
xG 0.07–0.65 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Pettersson11:23
xG 1.82–0.76 (71%)attempts 27–8goals 0–2
- Letang – Dumoulin15:48
xG 0.78–0.53 (60%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Maatta – Pettersson2:00
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Toffoli – Kempe7:25
xG 0.98–0.26 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Luff4:17
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Leipsic – Iafallo6:06
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Carter – Thompson – Iafallo2:18
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:01
xG 1.22–0.83 (60%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg12:06
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort19:01
xG 0.56–1.41 (28%)attempts 7–27goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).