Sun, Jan 13, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 27 | 110 | 323 |
| CAR | 212 | 312 | 110 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:44CARSebastian AhoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:15CARSaku MaenalanenAssists: Justin Faulk, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 2:48NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:08CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Micheal Ferland, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 8:35CARLucas WallmarkGWGAssists: Brock McGinn, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 10:11CARJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sebastian Aho · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–5
- P2 14:29NSHFilip ForsbergSHAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Bonino · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 13:33NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–5
- P3 16:59CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:29CARDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:19NSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:19CARMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:19NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:19CARMicheal Ferland: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:51CARMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:09NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53CARJordan Martinook: Holding2 min
- P2 9:08NSHRyan Ellis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:01NSHRyan Hartman: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:16CARVictor Rask: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:21
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Grimaldi – Di Giuseppe7:27
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Sissons – Fiala6:23
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Watson – Hartman4:46
xG 0.04–0.40 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Irwin10:42
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm13:48
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis12:24
xG 0.14–1.14 (11%)attempts 8–18goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – McKegg – Svechnikov10:36
xG 0.50–0.05 (90%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Rask – Maenalanen – Foegele7:36
xG 0.51–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho6:38
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark9:23
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk12:15
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk13:40
xG 0.59–0.25 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce11:49
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).