Sun, Jan 13, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Florida Panthers 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 98% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 07 | 19 | 124 |
| VAN | 013 | 114 | 49 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:32VANLoui ErikssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 5:29FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Henrik Borgstrom, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 7:20VANBen HuttonGWGAssists: Troy Stecher, Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 17:43VANBrock BoeserENAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
- P3 19:22VANJay BeagleENAssists: Loui Eriksson, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
- P3 19:49VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Tyler Motte, Derrick Pouliot · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:26VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:22FLAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:31FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:31VANErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:57FLAMike Hoffman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:28VANNikolay Goldobin: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:49FLAMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49VANJosh Leivo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:49FLAColton Sceviour: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Barkov – Malgin3:07
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Bjugstad – McCann2:39
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov4:01
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- McCann – Vatrano – Malgin4:23
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Matheson16:18
xG 0.15–0.49 (24%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Weegar – Kiselevich12:04
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Yandle – Ekblad19:19
xG 0.38–1.46 (21%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Horvat – Boeser13:00
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Leivo – Granlund – Goldobin5:26
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Motte9:25
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Virtanen13:05
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Stecher14:50
xG 1.02–0.23 (81%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Edler – Stecher3:01
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev15:12
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 98% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).