Mon, Jan 14, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
St. Louis Blues 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 314 | 19 | 437 |
| WSH | 17 | 013 | 09 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Travis Boyd · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:18STLIvan BarbashevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:11STLVince DunnGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:00STLDavid PerronAssists: Vince Dunn, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 10:24STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:14STLVince Dunn: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:22STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:00WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:00STLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:01WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:07STLVladimir Tarasenko: Holding2 min
- P3 9:26WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz14:06
xG 1.20–0.38 (76%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford12:16
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Kyrou6:03
xG 0.31–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nolan – Barbashev – Blais2:42
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson13:29
xG 1.13–0.38 (75%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko16:08
xG 1.02–0.55 (65%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson2:03
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Stephenson8:58
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:19
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana6:45
xG 0.40–0.54 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:11
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Bowey2:28
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny14:31
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Orpik – Bowey8:52
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).