Mon, Jan 14, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 2, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 215 | 014 | 014 | 243 |
| EDM | 38 | 210 | 27 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Conor Sheary, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 2:33EDMZack KassianAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Rieder · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 3:23EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Caleb Jones · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 4:28EDMZack KassianGWGAssists: Tobias Rieder, Mikko Koskinen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P1 8:57BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 0:24EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 4:49EDMMilan LucicUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 3:50EDMMilan LucicAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 5:16EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:55EDMMatt Benning: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:47EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:52BUFRasmus Dahlin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:15EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
- P3 13:24EDMMatt Benning: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:22
xG 1.17–0.66 (64%)attempts 22–7goals 0–2
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:53
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Sheary – Thompson – Mittelstadt11:36
xG 0.56–0.74 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Pominville – Sobotka – Rodrigues11:19
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Dahlin7:44
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen10:02
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 14–5goals 1–2
- Scandella – Beaulieu12:40
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins8:03
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Spooner – Khaira – Puljujarvi7:26
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Rieder3:25
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 2–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid10:27
xG 0.64–0.62 (50%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Benning12:19
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Larsson – Jones17:56
xG 0.81–0.97 (45%)attempts 14–26goals 2–0
- Russell – Nurse14:59
xG 0.73–1.06 (41%)attempts 7–21goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).