Tue, Jan 15, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
St. Louis Blues 1, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 018 | 18 | 00 | 131 |
| NYI | 111 | 06 | 07 | 11 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 6:07STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- OT 1:37NYIValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:28STLRobert Bortuzzo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:14NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:49NYIAnders Lee: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 12:15STLJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P3 12:25NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:00STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:21
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford5:50
xG 0.28–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Sanford – Fabbri – Barbashev2:02
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou4:19
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn9:52
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson18:21
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko14:57
xG 0.68–0.64 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson10:10
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:53
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Dal Colle9:32
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:16
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:02
xG 0.82–0.40 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews12:13
xG 0.61–0.84 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:26
xG 0.06–0.46 (12%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).