Tue, Jan 15, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New York Rangers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 011 | 112 | 236 |
| NYR | 313 | 18 | 27 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Boo Nieves · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:24CARSaku MaenalanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:41NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 14:22NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 3:41NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 4:19NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 11:51CARSaku MaenalanenAssists: Victor Rask, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 12:55NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Boo Nieves · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:49CARGreg McKegg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:08NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:05CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:06NYRAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
- P3 3:19CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:24NYRAdam McQuaid: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:24CARBrock McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:16NYRCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Maenalanen – Foegele8:22
xG 0.53–0.12 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark9:32
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Williams – McKegg – Svechnikov11:45
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho11:09
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – van Riemsdyk14:09
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 26–12goals 0–1
- de Haan – Faulk12:57
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce15:00
xG 0.46–0.82 (36%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:23
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Nieves9:27
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Fast – Strome – Chytil13:20
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- McLeod – Buchnevich – Howden7:04
xG 0.14–0.65 (17%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo13:02
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 3–1
- McQuaid – Skjei19:10
xG 0.75–0.62 (55%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindgren10:46
xG 0.16–0.71 (19%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).