Tue, Jan 15, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 116 | 016 | 021 | 153 |
| MTL | 07 | 311 | 210 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:11FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Denis Malgin · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 0:29MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Joel Armia · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:44MTLPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 16:53MTLMax DomiAssists: Paul Byron, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 14:22MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 18:24MTLBrendan GallagherENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:00MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:00MTLMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:00FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P1 19:42FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:14FLAJuho Lammikko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:40MTLPaul Byron: Charging2 min
- P2 6:36MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:51MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Huberdeau – Borgstrom8:39
xG 0.56–0.30 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Barkov – Vatrano10:14
xG 0.54–0.53 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Hawryluk – Lammikko7:00
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – McCann – Malgin8:27
xG 0.35–0.84 (29%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson15:27
xG 1.53–0.53 (74%)attempts 29–13goals 0–1
- Weegar – McCoshen4:13
xG 0.18–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad15:38
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Domi6:52
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino6:58
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Tatar – Domi3:49
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Byron – Tatar – Kotkaniemi5:07
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulak13:20
xG 1.34–0.41 (77%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Reilly – Kulak2:42
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete12:02
xG 0.31–0.94 (25%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).