Tue, Jan 15, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 2, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 110 | 110 | 228 |
| NSH | 29 | 411 | 19 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:33NSHNick BoninoAssists: Colton Sissons, Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:21NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 7:07WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 12:08NSHViktor ArvidssonSHAssists: Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 14:57NSHRocco GrimaldiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 19:54NSHNick BoninoAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Hartman · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–6
- P3 7:56NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.08 xG1–7
- P3 16:11WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–7
Penalties (12)
- P2 1:55WSHJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:01NSHP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:41NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:08NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:05WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:54WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:56WSHJohn Carlson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:56WSHJohn Carlson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:24WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:24NSHP.K. Subban: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:58WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson9:02
xG 0.59–0.15 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson2:18
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Jaskin8:42
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:31
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Kempny3:20
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Siegenthaler8:37
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Carlson – Kempny13:53
xG 0.60–0.79 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:13
xG 1.36–0.28 (83%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Grimaldi – Hartman – Gaudreau7:36
xG 0.45–0.15 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Fiala10:37
xG 0.11–0.35 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons9:27
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Josi14:24
xG 1.30–0.52 (71%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm13:19
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Weber13:42
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).