Tue, Jan 15, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Dallas Stars 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 03 | 15 | 221 |
| DAL | 013 | 013 | 09 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 9:15TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
Penalties (11)
- P2 9:48TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 9:48TBLVictor Hedman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:38TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:38DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:10TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P3 4:22TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:11TBLMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:24DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:22TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:59DALValeri Nichushkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:44DALRadek Faksa: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Gourde8:01
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point2:19
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point9:41
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Kucherov – Cirelli2:28
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman13:41
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev12:21
xG 0.34–0.34 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh13:55
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Cogliano – Condra8:03
xG 0.43–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa8:07
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:28
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Janmark – Nichushkin – Hintz5:01
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:45
xG 0.51–0.23 (68%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Polak – Lindell2:32
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Honka2:46
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).