Tue, Jan 15, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 08 | 19 | 224 |
| SJS | 27 | 115 | 27 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17PITKris LetangAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:00SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Erik Karlsson, Brenden Dillon · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 14:05SJSTomas HertlAssists: Evander Kane, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 3:39SJSJoe ThorntonGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Radim Simek · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 2:06SJSTomas HertlAssists: Justin Braun, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–4
- P3 18:10PITDerick BrassardAssists: Tanner Pearson, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:35SJSTomas HertlENAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:30PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:52SJSJoonas Donskoi: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 19:26PITJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:44SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Grant – Wilson5:53
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:32
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Pearson – Simon6:30
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Brassard – Pearson – Simon4:54
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Maatta14:23
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin16:32
xG 0.34–0.74 (31%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Johnson – Pettersson13:38
xG 0.49–1.37 (27%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Donskoi – Hertl12:34
xG 1.28–0.13 (91%)attempts 21–5goals 2–0
- Couture – Meier – Radil9:51
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen10:58
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc7:49
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon14:34
xG 1.21–0.47 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Braun – Dillon3:24
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Burns – Simek13:51
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).