Wed, Jan 16, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 212 | 017 | 113 | 342 |
| PHI | 17 | 27 | 15 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 9:12BOSPeter CehlarikAssists: Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 12:44PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:32PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 6:47PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 15:53PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:54BOSPeter CehlarikAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:25BOSPeter Cehlarik: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:14PHIJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:10BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:48PHIJori Lehtera: Boarding5 min
- P2 16:48PHIJori Lehtera: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:39PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:00PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:44BOSDavid Krejci: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson8:09
xG 0.59–0.14 (80%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:55
xG 0.88–0.61 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari9:36
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Krejci – Cehlarik – DeBrusk9:42
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy12:52
xG 1.14–0.53 (68%)attempts 24–9goals 0–1
- Krug – Carlo13:27
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk13:14
xG 0.29–0.37 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom10:38
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny10:01
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Varone – Raffl4:33
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick11:23
xG 0.35–0.52 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Provorov16:14
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 10–20goals 3–1
- MacDonald – Gudas5:28
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere8:14
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).