Thu, Jan 17, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 211 | 010 | 230 |
| BOS | 013 | 28 | 36 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:31BOSTorey KrugAssists: David Krejci, Peter Cehlarik · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:23STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jordan Kyrou, David Perron · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 13:36STLCarl GunnarssonAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:00BOSDavid BackesPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 5:27BOSChris WagnerGWGAssists: Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 13:12BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:08BOSSean KuralyENAssists: David Krejci, Chris Wagner · Snap, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:53BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:30BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:30STLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:01BOSPeter Cehlarik: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:03STLRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:40BOSChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:11STLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Schwartz2:09
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou5:38
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:18
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Fabbri6:34
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson6:53
xG 0.45–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn3:54
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson2:24
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Cehlarik – DeBrusk11:37
xG 0.61–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:44
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Donato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson8:14
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Backes – Wagner – Kuraly8:46
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo15:49
xG 0.82–0.45 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Moore – McAvoy2:15
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy13:14
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).