Thu, Jan 17, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 04 | 17 | 117 |
| NYI | 35 | 012 | 19 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:19NYIMichael Dal ColleGWGAssists: Scott Mayfield, Leo Komarov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 15:12NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Nick Leddy, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 7:07NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:51NYIAnders LeeENAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:36NYIAnders Lee: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:28NJDBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P2 19:31NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:44NJDBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Stafford – Zacha – Seney10:17
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Coleman12:00
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Pietila – Rooney9:24
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Johansson – Bratt – Hischier10:22
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Vatanen3:03
xG 0.03–0.21 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson13:35
xG 0.46–0.77 (37%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Vatanen – Butcher10:21
xG 0.05–0.37 (12%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson11:07
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:07
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Dal Colle11:47
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier11:47
xG 0.48–0.65 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:38
xG 0.85–0.34 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews15:12
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:51
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).