Thu, Jan 17, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Chicago Blackhawks 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 09 | 26 | 327 |
| NYR | 29 | 113 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41CHIBrandon SaadPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 13:20NYRFilip ChytilUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:38NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Chris Kreider, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 13:09NYRChris KreiderUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 1:40CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:42NYRMika ZibanejadENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
- P3 19:58CHIDominik KahunAssists: David Kampf, Drake Caggiula · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:49NYRCody McLeod: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:17NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:19NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:46CHIChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Kruger – Kampf6:56
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – DeBrincat9:27
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Toews – Kane – DeBrincat5:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Perlini – Kahun6:20
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Dahlstrom12:15
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Jokiharju12:08
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook17:53
xG 0.43–1.26 (26%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad12:51
xG 1.02–0.32 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Fast – Strome – Chytil11:01
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Nieves9:36
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Buchnevich – Howden2:56
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo16:31
xG 1.41–0.07 (95%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- McQuaid – Skjei14:53
xG 0.92–0.37 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindgren13:24
xG 0.20–0.29 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).