Thu, Jan 17, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 5, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 214 | 29 | 534 |
| NSH | 011 | 113 | 014 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09WPGBrendan LemieuxUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 3:36WPGMason AppletonGWGAssists: Joe Morrow, Sami Niku · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 11:57NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Ellis, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 19:14WPGBryan LittleAssists: Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 1:54WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Adam Lowry, Sami Niku · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 15:38WPGBrendan LemieuxAssists: Andrew Copp, Joe Morrow · Deflected, 0.02 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:31NSHRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:44WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:49WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:09NSHDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P3 4:18WPGJacob Trouba: Holding2 min
- P3 10:09WPGBrendan Lemieux: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:48NSHP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Roslovic – Laine10:15
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton9:02
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 3–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:44
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev8:08
xG 0.13–0.45 (22%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov13:58
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Morrow – Niku13:51
xG 0.81–0.75 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 4–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:04
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:09
xG 1.15–0.62 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 1–2
- Grimaldi – Hartman – Gaudreau3:40
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Fiala4:03
xG 0.03–0.04 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi4:24
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm14:25
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm2:02
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Subban – Josi14:05
xG 0.63–0.91 (41%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).